Fantasy Football Forecast: Waiver Wire & Trade Advice (Week 13) (2024)

Welcome back, fellow fantasy football GAMERS! The NFL season is marching steadily toward LUCKY Week 13, and the fantasy football playoffs are looming large on the horizon. As we step into Week 13, we’re excited to present the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, bringing you the key action items you need as fantasy managers.

?Waiver Wire Advice
?Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
?Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Note that with the majority of trade deadlines passed, I will be shifting gears in terms of “buy/sell” segments. Instead of viewing buy/sell in a traditional way in trades, it will be used more to forecast the player as stock up/stock down from Weeks 13-18. I’ll be including more direct advice in terms of DFS and Prizepicks, for those that are looking for more action if the season-long didn’t go the way you planned.

And there’s no better time than now to sign up for Prizepicks, with our sports betting site BettingPros offering the Prizepicks Cheat Sheet – the fastest and easiest to pick out the best picks to add to your slip. Sign up today with my promo code: PR-REQ653D for up to $25 in promo funds instantly.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast!

And per usual…

The snap counts thread:

NFL Week 12 ?
Fantasy Football Snap Counts…?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 27, 2023

Week 13 bye weeks

Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders
Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants

Week 14 bye week

Arizona Cardinals
Washington Commanders

Fantasy Football Forecast

Detroit Lions

Add Jameson Williams, Hold David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs

David Montgomery (snap share, 27%) led the Lions’ ground game, carrying the ball 15 times for 71 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, and scoring 1 touchdown.

Jahmyr Gibbs (snap share, 71%), dominated the snaps, and added 54 yards on 11 carries, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Gibbs had an 18% target share with 8 targets, hauling in 4 passes for 19 yards. Montgomery had just one target.

The third straight game where Gibbs has out-snapped Monty, but this was by far the largest difference between the two backs. The negative game script played a part, so it won’t be this large of a gap every single week. However, it’s interesting that Gibbs earned most of his carries (8) in the second half.

Montgomery still has the highest TD equity in the backfield – 4 red-zone carries to Gibbs’ 2 in Week 12 – but Gibbs has the superior receiving role. And it’s elite. 84% route participation is an absurdly high number.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had 9 receptions on 11 targets, accumulating 95 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s target share was 25%.

Kalif Raymond on just a 29% snap also had an impactful game with 5 receptions for 90 yards on 5 targets (11% target share).

Sam LaPorta (87% snap share) and Josh Reynolds (64% snap share) each caught a touchdown pass. LaPorta had an 18% target share with 8 targets, catching 5 for 47 in addition to the score. LaPorta is in a SMASH spot versus the Saints in Week 13, who have been gashed by tight ends this season.

Jameson Williams only drew 3 targets but caught 2 for 51 yards. 63% snap share. Like last week. He also started the game. Still trending in the right direction.

The Saints, Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Cowboys are following up for the Lions.

It’s a great schedule overall for the Lions offense.

Green Bay Packers

Add Jayden Reed, Add Christian Watson, Stash GB DST, Add Tucker Kraft, Hold A.J. Dillon

AJ Dillon (52% snap share) was the primary ball carrier, rushing 14 times for 43 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Patrick Taylor played the other 48% of the snaps in the backfield (ran 16 routes to Dillon’s 9). Taylor finished with just 4 RB touches to Dillon’s 17.

AJD totaled four more red-zone carries, but didn’t score (again). Dillon remains a floor-based RB2/3 as long as Aaron Jones is sidelined. 40 scoreless yards and a few catches every week. Eventually, he will be on the positive side of the TD variance (maybe against the Giants) with him currently sitting on 1 score this season. His expected TDs are 5 this season. Woof.

Quarterback Jordan Love also made significant contributions with his legs, rushing for 39 yards on 3 attempts, including a long run of 37 yards. Love delivered an impressive performance, completing 22 out of 32 passes for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns, achieving a quarterback rating of 125.5. Been great against bad defenses the last few weeks. But be wary of KC next week.

Jordan Love’s top receiving target was Christian Watson (88% snap share, led in routes run), who caught 5 passes on 7 targets for 94 yards, including a long reception of 53 yards and a touchdown (2 red-zone targets). 22% target share and was involved from the get-go, hitting the over on his receiving yards prop on the first play of the game. Add him if he got dropped. But don’t be overly aggressive on a guy that has been extremely boom-or-bust. This spot was perfect for him, and he delivered on the splash play for the first time all year. The Chiefs’ defense will be tougher for him to play against, especially with Love’s tendency to spread the targets to all his receivers.

Malik Heath (20% snap share) and Dillon also played key roles in the passing game, contributing 46 and 38 yards, respectively. Dillon caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 3 targets. Heath filled in for an injured Dontayvion Wicks with 4 grabs on 4 targets. On 5 routes no less.

Jayden Reed was targeted a team-leading 8 times – 6 in the first half – translating to a 25% target share, and he secured a touchdown.

Romeo Doubs (86% snap share) was targeted 3 times, contributing to the Packers’ dynamic passing game.

Reed remains the No. 1 WR in this offense based on his consistent weekly output.

Rookie tight end Tucker Kraft only caught 2 passes on 2 targets. But he scored and played a whopping 96% of the snaps. With Luke Musgrave on IR, Kraft is the Packers’ TE1 the rest of the way. Add him off waivers. FWIW, I thought he was the superior talent to Kraft coming out of the draft this year. He will get his chance to solidify himself as the TE1. I’m here for it.

The Chiefs, Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Vikings are next for the GB Packers. Weeks 15-17 are the Buccaneers, Panthers and Minnesota. Note the easy schedule. Stash the DST before they play the Giants and the talented crop of playmakers at Love’s disposal.

Dallas Cowboys

Add Rico Dowdle, Buy Tony Pollard, Add Brandin Cooks, Buy Jalen Tolbert

Tony Pollard played 76% of the snaps and led the rushing efforts with 13 carries for 79 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown, his second game with a score.

Rico Dowdle added 11 yards on just 3 carries (22% snap share). Dowdle had been getting some love as potentially taking over the backfield, but that’s hardly the case. He works in here and there, but he’s not doing much to take fantasy value from Pollard. Dowdle is more or less just a handcuff that should be rostered in case of injury.

Pollard was involved heavily in the passing game, and had 6 targets, translating to about 19% of the total pass attempts.

Dak Prescott had an outstanding performance, completing 22 of 32 passes for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns, with a remarkable passer rating of 142.1. Commanders can’t stop any opposing aerial attack.

Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb were his primary targets. Cooks caught 4 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets, while Lamb added 53 yards and a touchdown (2 red-zone targets) on 4 receptions. Lamb, targeted 9 times, had a target share of approximately 28%. Also saw 163 air yards.

Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson also made significant contributions in the passing game, with Ferguson recording a 35-yard catch. Tolbert continued to play ahead of Michael Gallup as he has done the last several weeks. The second-year WR caught 2 of his 3 targets for 49 yards (84 air yards). Gallup had one catch for 13 yards (1 target) even though he ran 2 more routes.

The Seahawks are next for Dallas on Thursday night. Then it’s Philly, the Bills, the Dolphins and the Lions to wrap up the fantasy football season.

Look out for Tony Pollard folks…guy is starting to HEAT up at the exact time fantasy managers need him the most.

Washington Commanders

Add Antonio Gibson, Drop Jahan Dotson, Add Curtis Samuel

Brian Robinson played 45% of the snaps and led the team with 53 rushing yards on 15 attempts. Totaled 2 red-zone touches but did not score.

Antonio Gibson returned after missing a week and totaled a 46% snap share with the team facing a major negative game script. He ran 19 routes to B-Rob’s 16 routes run.

Robinson’s receiving role took a hit with AG back in the lineup, seeing just 3 targets to Gibson’s 4.

Curtis Samuel only played 55% of the snaps but he emerged as Howell’s primary target, catching 9 passes for 100 yards. Samuel, targeted 12 times, commanded a target share of 27.3%.

Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin (both with a snap % of 85%) also contributed significantly to the passing game, with 52 and 50 receiving yards respectively. McLaurin and Dotson, each having 11 and 6 targets, contributed to the team’s aerial attack. TMC was super inefficient, with just 4 catches (149 air yards). Look for him to bounce back in a potential shootout.

Dotson continues to be impossible to trust when Samuel is healthy and active in the lineup. Cannot be trusted in the crunch time of the fantasy playoffs.

Logan Thomas finished with just 2 catches on 4 targets. 67% route participation is slightly lower than usual.

The Commanders continue to play a TON of different WRs in their pass-heavy offense. The raw volume makes it so 1 or 2 pop off every week, but it’s irregular.

The remaining schedule features Miami, Bye Week, Los Angeles (Rams), New York (Jets) and the 49ers. It’s a tough schedule for the rest of the season. No.32 per the FantasyPros SOS tool for fantasy QBs.

Seattle Seahawks

Sell Zach Charbonnet/Kenneth Walker, Buy DK Metcalf, Hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell Tyler Lockett

Zach Charbonnet operated as a workhorse with an 88% snap share rushing for 47 yards on 14 attempts. DeeJay Dallas added to the running game with 2 carries for 10 yards. Charbs also was involved as a receiver again, with 4 catches for 11 yards (4 targets).

Great usage but it was a tough on-paper matchup for him to overcome. The schedule doesn’t get much better.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba played 75% of snaps and made a significant impact with 41 receiving yards, including a long one-handed catch of 34 yards. Only 3 targets.

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett while heavily targeted, managed only 32 and 30 receiving yards respectively. Metcalf, targeted 9 times, had a team-high target share of 33.3%. Constantly being peppered with deep sideline throws to no avail. Just 3 for 32 yards. On 161 air yards (55% air yards share).

Woof.

Lockett, with 5 targets, and other receivers like Noah Fant and Will Dissly, contributed but without finding the end zone. Lockett went 3 for 30.

The Seahawks take on Dallas (TNF), SF (again), Philly, Tennessee and Pittsburgh to close out the season.

San Francisco 49ers

Sell Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Hold George Kittle

Christian McCaffrey (77% snap share) led the ground game with an impressive 114 yards on 19 carries, scoring 2 touchdowns. Elijah Mitchell (26% snap share) provided solid support with 39 yards on 7 carries. McCaffrey was also involved in the passing game, catching 5 passes (6 targets).

Deebo Samuel was Brock Purdy’s top target, catching 7 passes for 79 yards (2 red-zone targets). His target share was 29.0% (9 targets). Samuel also found the end zone rushing, contributing 15 yards on 4 carries. When everybody is healthy, Samuel is the most likely odd man out in the offense. That wasn’t the case in this matchup versus Seattle, but that won’t be the case every week.

Brandon Aiyuk made significant contributions with 50 receiving yards, including a 28-yard touchdown (4 targets). Aiyuk’s uber efficiency allows him to be a fantasy star even when the volume is coming his way. Behind CMC, he’s by far the best fantasy asset on the 49ers. And the schedule is juicy for him to have some epic spike weeks down the stretch. You better take his receiving yards over. Prizepricks has him at an egregious 60 yards…After totaling 60 or fewer yards, Aiyuk has posted no less than 76 receiving yards the following week. And jam him into DFS lineups at $7,200.

Stack with Brock Purdy with MORE than 251.5 passing yards. The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 255.7 while also facing the highest pass rate.

George Kittle (100% snap share), though targeted 5 times, was limited to 19 yards and 3 receptions. Typical Kittle. Boom-or-bust extraordinaire. You just have to take your lumps and hope he BOOMs in the fantasy playoffs. Great “boom” potential versus Philly in Week 13.

The 49ers play the Eagles, Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens and Commanders to close out the season. No.1 schedule for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.

New York Jets

BuyGarrett Wilson,Sell Breece Hall

Breece Hall (Snap %: 66%) led the rushing efforts with 25 yards on 7 carries, though he couldn’t find the end zone. Another underwhelming game for the Jets RB1. But he salvaged the performance through the air with 7 catches for 24 yards on 9 targets. Two red-zone touches.

Garrett Wilson (Snap %: 95%; Target Share: 27.8%) was the primary target in the passing game, catching 7 passes for 44 yards and scoring a touchdown late (10 targets). He finds ways to score fantasy points. He’s just that good. He posted 81 air yards – good for a 68% air yards share.

Tyler Conklin (Snap %: 60%; Target Share: 13.9%) made 4 receptions for 33 yards (5 targets).

Jason Brownlee (Snap %: 98%) and Dalvin Cook (3 targets, 33% snap %) also contributed to the passing game with a combined 39 receiving yards Jason Brownlee played almost every single snap without Allen Lazard (healthy inactive). Xavier Gipson was the WR3.

Tim Boyle faced significant pressure, being sacked 7 times. He completed 27 out of 38 passes for 179 yards, throwing 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.

Jeremy Ruckert (4 targets) looks to have leap-frogged C.J. Uzomah on the Jets TE depth chart, out-snapping him 45% to 5%.

The Jets’ schedule over the remainder of the season is still favorable. The Falcons are up next followed by Texans, Dolphins (again), Commanders and Browns. Note it’s better for the passing game than the rushing game for Gang Green.

Miami Dolphins

Sell/HoldRaheem Mostert, Add Jeff Wilson Jr.

Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite targets were Jaylen Waddle (Snap %: 66%; Target Share: 28%) with 114 yards on 8 receptions (8 targets, team-high 54% air yard share) and Tyreek Hill (Snap %: 63%; Target Share: 43%) who caught 9 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown (12 targets).

Other receivers included were Jeff Wilson with 17 receiving yards and Durham Smythe (Snap %: 77%) who added 10 yards on 3 targets.

Raheem Mostert (Snap %: 60%) led the way with 94 yards on 20 carries, scoring 2 touchdowns and providing a solid ground game.

Jeff Wilson Jr. (Snap %: 33%) contributed a solid supporting effort with 56 yards on 11 attempts, averaging over 5 yards per carry. Salvon Ahmed was placed on IR earlier this week, and the timetable for the injury-plagued De’Von Achane remains to be seen. Add Wilson off waivers.

He was the preferred option in the passing game to Mostert, catching all 3 of his targets (11%) to Mostert’s lone target. Mostert ran more routes, but he has been consistently losing pass game work to other Dolphins RBs the past few weeks. But it’s not hurting his fantasy value which is mostly tied to TDs. He had 4 red-zone carries in Week 12, including a TD.

Still, his fragility needs no introduction. Keep Wilson stashed. In the first half of Week 12, the carries were almost a dead-even split. 8 for Mostert and 6 for Wilson. Wilson also had two catches in the 1^st half, which means the touches were equal.

Miami has the Commanders, Titans, Jets (again) Cowboys and Ravens in the next 5 weeks.

$9,600 on DraftKings might not be enough for Hill against the Washington Commanders’ defense. Or his receiving yardage prop at 97.5 yards…Rather just take the MORE than on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards at 280.5 yards. Waddle’s number is also too low at just 69.5 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Add Pat Freiermuth, Buy Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Sell/Hold Najee Harris, Sell George Pickens

Cincinnati Bengals

Sell Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Sell Ja’Marr Chase

Joe Mixon led the Bengals’ ground game, but was limited to just 16 yards on 8 carries. I was concerned about him without Joe Burrow, and it was at the forefront of this matchup. He’s in trouble with the brutal RB schedule. Bet the under on his rushing yardage prop.

Jake Browning completed 19 of 26 passes, throwing for 227 yards and 1 touchdown, although he was intercepted once and faced 4 sacks.

His main target was Ja’Marr Chase (Target Share: 24%, Air Yards Share: 45%), who caught 4 passes for 81 yards (6 targets). Two catches were off deflections…with one being a 31-yard gain.

If you can sell, I think that’s the move with Chase. This box score could have been dramatically worse had it not been for Chase creating his own magic. He can do so in upcoming favorable matchups, but it’s risky for sure. Should be started in most facets as a result.

Aside from Chase, notable contributions came from Mixon, who added 44 receiving yards on two catches, and Trenton Irwin with a 25-yard reception on his lone target.

Tyler Boyd (Target Share: 20%) and Tanner Hudson (Target Share: 20%) each contributed to the passing game with modest yardage. Boyd ended with 3 catches for 23 yards and ran one fewer route than Irwin. Hudson, 4 for 18 on 5 targets. He continues to be hyper-targeted, but Hudson is still splitting snaps/routes with other Bengals TEs.

Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Minnesota, followed by Pittsburgh again and the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships. Woof.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Travis Etienne, Sell Calvin Ridley, Buy Christian Kirk, Add D’Ernest Johnson

Travis Etienne carried the bulk of the rushing load with 56 yards on 20 carries, although he didn’t find the end zone. His longest run was 20 yards and he tallied 4 red zone carries, but no scores.

D’Ernest Johnson added 19 yards on 7 carries, while Tank Bigsby contributed 6 yards on a single carry. Johnson had a significant 42-yard reception on 2 targets (5.3% target share).

We are starting to see more of a decline in Etienne’s snap share with Johnson acting as his backup. Etienne played 62% of the snaps while Johnson played 39%. Easily the most we have seen from a Jags RB2 this season. However, Etienne left briefly while getting checked for a chest injury in the second quarter.

Since the bye week ETN has played consistently between 60-65% of the snaps, when he had not been below 70% Weeks 1-8.

At least Etienne still had 4 catches on 6 targets (15.8% target share) for 30 yards, the longest being 12 yards. Also had 14 RB opportunities in the first half to Johnson’s 5.

And the matchup versus the Bengals can cure everything for Etienne and his recent scoreless streak of three games. News flash. Trevor Lawrence won’t score rushing TDs every single week.

And despite Etienne’s underwhelming yardage numbers, he still touched the ball – checks notes – 24 times. Buy low and take the over on his rushing yardage props in Week 13. Prizepicks has his line set at 63.5 rushing yards. Too low in such as smash spot. I mean if Harris could get to 99 rushing yards against this Bengals run defense…I rest my case.

For fantasy football, add D’Ernest Johnson as a high-end handcuff. Just in case this chest injury is worse than it seems for Travis Etienne.

Calvin Ridley had 5 catches on 6 targets (16% target share) for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. His longest reception was 45 yards. 89 air yards. Yet again, he delivered with Zay Jones active in a favorable matchup. Cincinnati is another solid spot for him to keep producing. But CLE/BAL will be different stories the weeks after.

Although there should be some concern that he produced on such a low volume amount in Week 12.

Christian Kirk totaled 4 receptions on 7 targets (19% target share), also amassing 89 yards. His longest catch was an impressive 57-yarder. 88 air yards. It’s the opposite with Kirk, that his numbers get hurt the most when Jones plays.

Luke Farrell: 3 catches on 5 targets (13.2% target share) for 55 yards, with a long of 42 yards.

Evan Engram: 5 receptions from 8 targets (Team-high 22% target share), contributing 49 yards, and a long catch of 21 yards. Remains steady as they come, but still has not scored based on his ugly red-zone role. That hurts in fantasy, but not for hitting his projected Prizepicks number. Engram came through with the over in this last matchup, so let’s go right back to him. Especially in Week 13 against the Bengals, who just got shredded by the Steelers’ tight ends. More than 44.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks for Engram in Week 13. Cincy is allowing the 4th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Zay Jones: 1 catch from 4 targets (8% target share) for 10 yards.

The Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Buccaneers over the next 4 weeks for Jacksonville. Rough schedule for the passing game. No. 32 per the FantasyPros SOS tool for fantasy QBs. Also No. 32 for WRs. Sell high on some of these Jaguars WRs.

Houston Texans

Hold Devin Singletary, Sell Dameon Pierce, SellNico Collins, AddNoah Brown, Sell Dalton Schultz, Add Texans DST

Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce barely contributed to the ground game with 18 and 14 yards, respectively. Singletary had just six carries (4 inside the red zone) while Pierce had 5 carries. Pierce had one carry in the second half.

Singletary, versatile in the receiving game as well, had 6 receptions for 54 yards, with his longest catch being 33 yards on 7 targets (19% target share). He’s Houston’s RB1. He played a whopping 80% of the snaps to Pierce’s mediocre 18% snap share. And better yet, he’s $5,900 on DraftKings in Week 13.

C.J. Stroud stood out in the passing department, completing 26 of 36 passes for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns, with his longest pass being 34 yards.

Nico Collins was Stroud’s top target, catching 7 passes for 104 yards and scoring a touchdown (9 targets, 25% target share). His longest reception was 24 yards and he fell just short of 100 air yards. He was a great buy-low target last week and somebody we need to continue to ride. However, he might fall short of expectations against Denver, who have been an elite unit at taking away opposing No. 1 pass-catchers. Jets the following week will also be tough.

Tank Dell also made significant contributions with 5 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown (8 targets, 22% target share). He had all of his production come in the first half alone. Totaled another 100-plus air yards (125) while leading the team in routes run. He also had ANOTHER 62-yard bomb pass taken off the board because of an illegal shift penalty on Dell. Simply put, that’s the only thing that can stop this rookie. More than 59.5 receiving yards in Week 13 versus the Broncos on Prizepicks? Yes, please.

Dalton Schultz only had two targets as his usage was very bad with Brevin Jordan in the lineup. The two split routes nearly 50/50. Jordan played a season-high 43% snap share, while Schultz played just 48% of the snaps. Woof.

We have overlooked Jordan’s impact on Schultz, as the latter’s spike in production correlated with Jordan being inactive in Weeks 5-10. Stay ahead of trends and get out of the Schultz business ASAP. Could be a trap game for Schultz against the Broncos, even with how bad they are against tight ends. If he gets steamed in ownership projections across daily fantasy platforms, fade him.

Denver is next followed by the Jets and the Titans.

Carolina Panthers

SellChuba Hubbard, Jonathan Mingo, Adam Thielen

Chuba Hubbard led the rushing attack with 14 carries for 45 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and scoring 1 touchdown. His longest run was for 15 yards. Chuba Hubbard added 5 catches from 5 targets (21% target share) for 47 yards, with a long of 25 yards.

Miles Sanders carried the ball 15 times but managed only 28 yards, averaging 1.9 yards per attempt with a long of 15 yards.

Sanders out-carried Chuba Hubbard 7 to 5 in the first half, but the latter was much more effective with his carries. Obviously, Hubbard is the preferred back to own (64% snap share to Sanders’ 36% snap share) but he’s nothing more than plug-in RB3. I would lean toward his rushing props under in Week 13 versus a tough Buccaneers run defense. Because the random spurts of Sanders playing create concern about Hubbard’s trusted workload.

Jonathan Mingo hauled in 4 receptions on 6 targets (25% target share, 41% air yards share) for 60 yards, with his longest reception being 24 yards. Don’t buy this for a second from the up-and-down rookie.

DJ Chark completed 3 receptions on 4 targets (16.7% target share) for 34 yards, with his longest catch being 19 yards.

Adam Thielen was a GHOST. Only 3 targets. One catch for 2 yards on an 89% snap share while leading the team in routes run.

The Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich after a 1-10 start, and that is going to cause a ripple effect with the offense. Special teams coach Chris Tabor has been appointed as interim head coach, while offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will assume play-calling duties, as he did from Weeks 8-10.

That’s bad news for Thielen who from Weeks 8-10, totaled fewer than 45 receiving yards in 2 of the 3 contests. Thielen has turned back into a pumpkin folks. Start taking the unders. Less than 61.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks might be the lock of Week 13.

Tight end Tommy Tremble dominated the snaps (72%) with Hayden Hurst out due to a concussion. But he only had 1 target.

Tampa Bay is next, tailed by New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay.

Tennessee Titans

Hold/Buy DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Sell Chigoziem Okonkwo

Derrick Henry was the standout rusher with 18 carries for 76 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring 2 touchdowns. His longest run was for 18 yards and he was targeted twice. 64% snap share.

The Big Dog is getting ready for December.

Tyjae Spears only had two carries, but he also took a big hit during the game. 40% snap share. Both RBs split routes run.

Continue to ride Henry in home games. At home versus the Colts in Week 13.

Will Levis completed 18 of 28 pass attempts, throwing for 185 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdowns or interceptions, with his longest pass covering 25 yards.

DeAndre Hopkins only had 3 receptions on 5 targets (18% target share) for 49 yards, with his longest reception being 19 yards. After a hot start with Levis, Hopkins has had just 10 targets in the last two games, averaging just over 54 yards.

Still, he is so clearly the alpha in the passing game that he’s impossible to bench in plus-matchups.

Chigoziem Okonkwo totaled 4 catches from 5 targets (17.9% target share) totaling 45 yards, with a long of 25 yards. His snaps increased from last week, but Josh Whyle is still more involved, making Chig untrustworthy.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine finished with 4 receptions on 5 targets (17.9% target share) for 41 yards, with an 18-yard long catch. Chris Moore: 3 catches from 4 targets (14.3% target share) for 41 yards, the longest being 22 yards.

Kyle Philips remained buried as the WR4.

The Colts, Dolphins, Texans, Seattle and Houston again. Overall, it’s a favorable schedule for the offense to produce fantasy points.

New England Patriots

Hold/BuyRhamondre Stevenson, AddDemario Douglas

THE TANK IS ON.

Rhamondre Stevenson led the charge with 21 carries, totaling 98 yards and averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He also scored a touchdown and had a long run of 15 yards. The second game in a row with 20-plus carries. He’s the only reason to turn on Patriots games anymore, and I bet the team will continue to lean on him.

Stevenson, involved in the passing game as well, had 5 receptions (14.3% target share) for 9 yards. 78% snap share was easily his highest of the season. While the Patriots roll out a dumpster fire, Stevenson gives fantasy managers hope.

Ezekiel Elliott contributed significantly with 9 carries for 46 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt and a long of 13 yards. Zeke also caught two passes for 6 yards. However, he was limited to just a 22% snap share.

Mac Jones was benched in the 2^nd half for Bailey Zappe.

Demario Douglas was the primary target, catching 6 of 9 passes (26% target share) for 49 yards, with a long of 14 yards. 6 first-half targets. Only played 49% of the snaps after exiting early with a head injury. If healthy, he’s the only Pats WR that you can play in fantasy.

DeVante Parker made 3 catches on 5 targets (14.3% target share) for 42 yards, with a long reception of 19 yards. Zero targets from Zappe in the 2^nd half.

Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined for 29 yards on 9 targeted passes. They only got involved once Jones left the game. Smith-Schuster was second in WR snaps played (Parker, 1^st).

So much talent….

Hunter Henry was not targeted. 68% snaps and route participation of 54%. Woof. Pharaoh Brown out-snapped Mike Gesicki.

With Zappe at QB in the second half…

Stevenson had 11 carries and 2 receptions.
Elliott had 6 carries
Tyquan Thornton had 4 targets
Douglas had 3 targets
Smith-Schuster had 4 targets

Next up for the tanking Patriots, it’s the Chargers, Steelers and Chiefs.

New York Giants

Add Jaylin Hyatt, Sell Saquon Barkley

New Orleans Saints

Add Juwan Johnson, A.T. Perry, Sell Alvin Kamara, Hold Taysom Hill, Add Saints DST

Alvin Kamara led the Saints’ rushing attack with 69 yards on 15 carries, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with a long run of 16 yards. Didn’t score on any of his 3 red-zone touches on a 64% snap share.

Taysom Hill also contributed with 26 yards on 7 carries, demonstrating the Saints’ varied rushing options. He actually had two more touches wiped away because of penalties. Hill and Kamara were also notable in the passing game. Hill caught 2 passes for 55 yards, and Kamara added 50 yards on 4 receptions. Hill played 35% of the snaps.

Lynn Bowden Jr. had a significant impact with just 2 carries, gaining 40 yards. His longest run was an impressive 29 yards. He played 64% of the snaps with the Saints getting hit by injuries. Bowden also had two targets but no catches. His third target he caught for 14 yards, but it was nullified due to a penalty.

Chris Olave was Carr’s favorite target, catching 7 out of his 9 targets (24.3% target share) for 114 yards. His longest reception was 51 yards. Left the game with a concussion. Rashid Shaheed also left the game with an injury (5 targets, 2 red-zone targets).

Without a ton of the Saints’ big-play options, the under on Carr’s passing yardage might be the move to bet in Week 13.

Juwan Johnson and Keith Kirkwood contributed with 45 and 20 receiving yards, respectively. Johnson led with 7 targets catching 4 balls (19% target share). Johnson played the most snaps (74%) of the skill players and ran the most routes (85% route participation). Add him if you need a tight end streamer in Week 13. Also a nice tight end punt option at $3,400.

A.T. Perry saw the same expanded role after Michael Thomas got hurt the game before the bye week. However, the 74% snap share or the most WR routes did not translate into production (2 targets). Because his usage was superior to Kirkwood’s, and he would be the most logical player Saints WR to target off waivers ahead of a plus-matchup versus the Lions. He is also dirt cheap on DraftKings at $3,300.

The Lions, Carolina, New York Giants, LA Rams and Tampa Bay round out the fantasy playoffs. Stash the Saints’ DST after they get dropped.

Atlanta Falcons

Buy/Hold Bijan Robinson, Hold/Buy Drake London, Drop Jonnu Smith, Add Falcons DST

Bijan Robinson spearheaded the Falcons’ ground game with 91 yards on 16 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown (three red-zone touches). His longest run was 17 yards. Led the team in targets in the first half (4) and carries (10). 63% snap share.

Tyler Allgeier also had a notable contribution, rushing for 64 yards on 10 attempts, with a long of 14 yards. Allgeier has zero red-zone touches, with Bijan taking a larger part in that area of the field. He’s $6,700 on DraftKings in Week 13.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Desmond Ridder added 43 and 30 yards, respectively, to the team’s impressive total of 228 rushing yards. C-Patt finished with 8 carries and a 26% snap share.

Patterson carried the ball 5 times in the first half, while Allgeier had just 1 first-half carry for 2 yards. He got almost all his yardage in the second half (62 yards on 9 carries). Played only a 29% snap share.

Drake London was Ridder’s top target, catching 5 of his 7 targets (35% target share, 46% air yards share) for 91 yards. His longest reception was 29 yards.

Robinson and Kyle Pitts also were involved as receivers. Robinson caught 3 out of 6 targets for 32 yards (30% target share), including a touchdown, while Pitts caught both of his targets for 22 yards.

Jonnu Smith played less than usual, seeing just 35% of the snaps. Ran only 9 routes on 24 Ridder dropbacks. 38%. Not good. Cannot trust him with that little route usage. Only if the Falcons are forced to throw can Smith pop off games. Not likely the case versus the Jets (bet the under).

Other Falcons WRs ran fewer than 50% of the routes per dropback.

The Jets and Buccaneers are next. The playoff schedule remains JUICY with Carolina, Indianapolis and the Bears Weeks 15-17. The Atlanta DST is stash-worthy.

Here’s a correlated Prizepicks for the Falcons I love. Desmond Ridder LESS than 182.5 passing yards, paired with Drake London under 49.5 receiving yards and Bijan Robinson over 63.5 rushing yards.

Fully expecting the Falcons – on the road – to hide Ridder and unleash Bijan against the Jets. New York is a run funnel. They are facing the league’s LOWEST pass play rate at 51%. Meanwhile, the Falcons want to run no matter what. Last week, the Falcons pass rate over expectation in Week 12 was -16%. Ridder attempted just 21 passes.

And to tie a complete bow on the play, go MORE on Younghoe Koo’s 1.5 field goals. I expect a low-scoring game. And that means field goals. The Jets rank last in FGs allowed per game (3) this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Add Cade Otton, Hold Rachaad White, Mike Evans

Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 100 yards on 15 carries, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. His longest run was a substantial 38 yards. Chase Edmonds had one carry. White – despite being added to the injury report late in the week – played 87% of the snaps.

He’s slated for a big game against the Panthers in Week 13. $6.3K on DraftKings in Week 13. Likely going to be stone-cold lock chalk.

Mike Evans was Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, catching 6 out of 9 targets (30% target share) for 70 yards and scoring both touchdowns. Commanded 121 air yards.

Cade Otton and Chris Godwin were also significant contributors, with Otton catching all 4 of his targets for 45 yards, and Godwin securing 3 receptions from 7 targets for 45 yards (23% target share). Otton played 100% of the snaps. Godwin remains a high-floor player in PPR formats, but his weekly upside is limited with the TDs going elsewhere in the offense.

WR3 Trey Palmer contributed with 17 receiving yards on 5 targets (17% target share).

The Panthers are the next for Tampa Bay followed by the Falcons, Packers, and Jaguars.

Indianapolis Colts

Hold Jonathan Taylor, BuyMichael Pittman Jr., Buy Josh Downs

Jonathan Taylor was the standout rusher, carrying the ball 15 times for 91 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns. His longest run was 17 yards on a sparingly low 58% snap share.

Zack Moss also contributed significantly with 55 yards on 8 carries, averaging an impressive 6.9 yards per attempt. He also added 3 targets on a 41% snap share.

The first-half usage was bizarre. Taylor and Moss each had 4 carries. JT had 4 touches in the first half before they cut him loose. Taylor also had zero targets in the game despite running 21 routes to Moss’ 17 routes.

Fantasy managers were saved by JT’s two TDs – he had 5 red-zone carries – but Moss was more involved than anybody could have projected based on the recent trends.

Michael Pittman Jr. was a primary target in the passing game, catching 10 of his 13 targets (33% target share) for 107 yards. His longest reception was 24 yards.

Josh Downs also saw significant action with 13 targets (33% target share), resulting in 5 catches for 43 yards. He also had 3 red-zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone.

Pittman is $7,100 and Downs is $5,100 on DraftKings in Week 13.

We love concentrated target shares. Nobody else saw more than six targets (Alec Pierce) in the Colts passing game. Bet the receiving yardage over with the Titans’ pass funnel defense up next.

Gardner Minshew’s passing prop on Prizepicks opened at 241.5 passing yards, while Pittman’s receiving yardage started at 70.5. “More” than time.

Will Mallory led the tight end room in routes run and targets with Drew Ogletree out of the lineup. However, he played fewer snaps than Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson.

The Colts will play the Titans, Bengals and Steelers next. The Colts have a top WR strength of schedule for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Rams

Buy Kyren Williams, Add Royce Freeman, Sell Cooper Kupp, Add Rams DST

Kyren Williams totaled 14 touches in the first half. Over 100 yards from scrimmage. But that wasn’t all.

Williams accumulated an impressive 143 yards on 16 carries in the full game, boasting an average of 8.9 yards per carry and a long run of 56 yards. Williams was also active in the passing game, catching all 6 of his targets (19% target share) for 61 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. He totaled 7 red-zone touches with over 200 yards from scrimmage by the end of the game. Full-blown workhorse around the goal line with a 61% snap share.

But he wasn’t the only Rams RB to be productive.

Royce Freeman contributed effectively with 77 yards on 13 carries, scoring a touchdown and achieving a long run of 23 yards. Also earned 3 red-zone carries on a 34% snap share. He’s the clear handcuff to the often-injured Williams. Keep him on your bench.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a strong performance, completing 25 of his 33 pass attempts for 229 yards. He threw 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, achieving a long pass of 42 yards and ending the game with a 121.1 passer rating.

Tutu Atwell led in receiving yards, catching all 3 of his targets (9.7% target share, 37% air yard share) for 76 yards, with his longest reception going for 42 yards. Don’t go chasing this, however, as Atwell was still the clear-cut WR4 in both snaps and routes behind Demarcus Robinson.

Tyler Higbee was another key target, snagging 5 receptions on 5 targets for 29 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns (16% target share). He was overdue for TD regression and cashed in. However, I wouldn’t be on that happening twice in a row with a brutal matchup next week.

Puka Nacua was targeted 8 times (26% target share), making 4 receptions for 27 yards. His longest reception was for 14 yards. Cooper Kupp, was targeted 5 times (16.1% target share). He made 3 receptions for 18 yards.

The Rams play the Browns, Baltimore, Washington, the Saints and the Giants in their next five games.

Arizona Cardinals

Add Greg Dortch, Buy Marquise Brown, Add Michael Wilson, Hold James Conner

James Conner had just 5 carries in the first half. Other Cardinals RBs combined for 4. Conner ended the game with 6 carries for 27 yards (two in the red zone). Michael Carter and Eno Benjamin also “contributed” with Carter gaining 19 yards on 4 carries and Benjamin adding 15 yards on 3 attempts. Woof.

Conner did haul in 4 catches on 5 targets. Carter also saw 4 targets. But Conner’s 42% snap share can also be chalked up to the game being out of reach. Carter’s second touch came in the 4^th quarter with the Red Birds down 37-8. Not overly concerned about Conner’s workload going forward.

Marquise Brown was Murray’s top target, catching 6 of his 12 targets (27% target share) for 88 yards, with his longest reception being 36 yards. Hollywood Brown led all WRs with 189 air yards in Week 12.

Tight end Trey McBride showed more consistent production, hauling in 7 of his 9 targets for 60 yards (20% target share, 2 red-zone targets).

Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch also made significant contributions, with Moore gaining 35 yards on 2 receptions and Dortch scoring a touchdown among his 3 catches for 27 yards (9 targets, 20% target share) to go along with 100 air yards.

Dortch got it done in garbage time. YTLSI. If Michael Wilson misses another week, I’d go right back to the Dortch. 8-plus targets in the last two games. Rondale Moore has 4 targets TOTAL in the last two weeks.

The Cardinals face the Steelers next, followed by their bye week. Then it’s SF, CHI and PHI.

Cleveland Browns

AddDavid Njoku, BuyJerome Ford, AddElijah Moore, SellKareem Hunt

Cedric Tillman led the Browns with 4 catches for 55 yards in the first half (4 targets). He had zero production in the second half, despite playing the most WR snaps and running the second-most routes.

Jerome Ford led the Browns’ rushing attack with 9 carries for 65 yards, averaging an impressive 7.2 yards per carry, with a long run of 19 yards. Kareem Hunt contributed with 7 carries for 22 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. Added 2 red-zone carries.

Ford and Hunt each had 4 carries in the first half. Ford also had 4 targets.

Still Ford DOMINATED the snaps at 70% to Hunt’s 26%.

David Njoku had 2 targets in the first half. Woof. 1 catch for 5 yards. But he came back in the second half to get us the OVER on his receiving yardage prop. Njoku caught 6 of his 9 targets for 59 yards (23% air yards share, 23% target share).

However, if the rookie QB misses next week, be wary that Njoku might not see the same volume he has been absorbing. Only saw 2 targets from Walker in this contest.

Elijah Moore had 3 receptions for 44 yards from 9 targets, with a long reception of 26 yards. Saw a boatload of air yards (128) and 2 red-zone targets. Led the team in routes. 5 of Moore’s targets came in the fourth quarter from the backup QB. He’s very cheap in DFS at $3,500 in Week 13.

Amari Cooper and Jerome Ford also contributed to the passing game, with Cooper catching 2 passes (6 targets, 15%) and Ford making 4 receptions (7 targets, 18% target share). Cooper took a big shot and missed game action at the end with a rib injury. Could miss some time, which why guys like Moore and Tillma need to be added off waivers.

Tight end Harrison Bryant caught a 2-yard touchdown pass.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the primary quarterback, completing 14 of his 29 attempts (48.3% completion rate) for 134 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 73.1. He was knocked out of the game after taking a big hit.

P.J. Walker came in shortly after, completing 6 of his 13 attempts for 56 yards. He was sacked 4 times and ended with a passer rating of 58.5.

With Walker at QB in the fourth quarter, the targets were as follows:

Tillman – 1
Ford – 3
Moore – 5
Njoku – 2
Bell – 1

Browns’ Remaining Schedule: LAR, JAC, CHI, HOU and NYJ

Denver Broncos

Sell Javonte Williams, Add Samaje Perine, Drop Jerry Jeudy, Jaleel McLaughlin, Add Greg Dulcich, Hold Courtland Sutton

Javonte Williams had 7 first-half carries, fewer than Russell Wilson… (8). Still, the target leader with 4 first-half targets. Finished with 6 targets for a team high, 29% target share. While playing 70% of the snaps.

Williams led the Broncos’ ground game overall with 18 carries for 65 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt with a long run of 15 yards. He did leave the game with a neck injury but returned. Also saw 3 red-zone carries.

His usage is somewhat unconventional, which has me concerned with some tougher upcoming matchups.

Samaje Perine provided relief, rushing 7 times for 55 yards, averaging an impressive 7.9 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown on a 24-yard run (2 red-zone carries). Jaleel McLaughlin had just 2 carries. Drop him as it appears he’s no longer the next-man up in Denver’s backfield.

Courtland Sutton was Wilson’s primary target in the passing game, receiving 6 targets and making 3 receptions for 61 yards, including a long catch of 31 yards. The Broncos barely passed the ball, so Sutton commanded a whopping 71% air yards share.

Marvin Mims also made his presence felt with 3 targets, catching 2 passes for 24 yards. Still the clear-cut WR3.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey had one reception for 13 yards.

Jerry Jeudy (2 catches/3 targets) and Samaje Perine (1 target) each contributed with receptions of 11 yards, and Adam Trautman caught a touchdown pass. Even in a narrow passing tree, there’s not enough juice to squeeze with Denver’s overall passing attack. Drop Jeudy unless you need to start a WR with good matchups.

Denver plays Houston, Los Angeles Chargers and the Lions over the next three weeks. Generally, a favorable schedule for the passing game for Wilson and his top pass-catchers. No.1 per the FantasyPros SOS tool.

Still, can’t help but lean toward the LESS than on Wilson’s Prizepicks line set at 211.5 yards. He has one game of 200-plus passing in his last 7 games…

Las Vegas Raiders

Sell Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Drop Michael Mayer, Sell Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack with 20 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a long run of 63 yards. He averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry and totaled 6 targets, catching 4 for 15 yards (19% target share).

Raiders
Davante Adams (WR): 100%
Jakobi Meyers (WR): 91%
Michael Mayer (TE): 84%
Josh Jacobs (RB): 76%
Hunter Renfrow (WR): 48%
Austin Hooper (TE): 41%
Tre Tucker (WR): 22%
Ameer Abdullah (RB): 21%
DeAndre Carter (WR): 12%
Zamir White (RB): 3%
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 27, 2023

Jakobi Meyers was a key target with 7 targets (22% target share) making 6 receptions for 79 yards and scoring a touchdown. His longest reception was 33 yards.

Davante Adams also received 7 targets, converting them into 5 catches for 73 yards (22% target share).

With a rookie QB and another strong target earner in the Raiders offense, the days of Adams being a bonafide fantasy WR1 are over in 2023 at least. He and Meyers have two great remaining matchups on the schedule, LAC/IND, but it clumped in with two lesser spots against the Vikings and Chiefs (at Arrowhead).

Hunter Renfrow and Michael Mayer each saw 4 targets. Renfrow played ahead of rookie Tre Tucker.

A bye week and the Vikings are up next for LV in their next 2 weeks, then it’s the Chargers, Chiefs and Colts.

Kansas City Chiefs

Hold Rashee Rice, Buy Isiah Pacheco, Add Justin Watson

The Chiefs’ ground game was more modest, with Isiah Pacheco rushing 15 times for 55 yards, but he found the end zone twice on 6 red-zone touches. Pacheco also saw 5 targets, catching all of them for 34 yards (16% target share). No Jerick McKinnon gave Pacheco a boosted role catching passes out of the backfield. 78% snap share was a season-high mark.

As always, buy Pacheco.No. 1 SOSfor RBs. Next 4 Weeks: GB, BUF, NE and LV (again).

Rashee Rice was Patrick Mahomes’ top target, receiving 10 targets (31% target share). He made 8 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown, including a long catch of 39 yards. Played a season-high 67% of the snaps. Ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. The rookie is breaking out.

Travis Kelce, a reliable tight end, was targeted 7 times, catching 6 passes for 91 yards (22% target share, 54% air yards share).

Justin Watson scored, on his lone catch (3 targets). Second in WR snaps played.

Skyy Moore played ahead of Marquez Valdes-Scantling in total snaps, while the latter ran two more routes (18 vs 20).

Next 4 Weeks: GB, BUF, NE and LV (again).

Could be a tougher matchup on paper for Mahomes. Only two QBs that have faced the Packers this season have gone for 270 passing yards plus.
Take less than on Mahomes at 271.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. Gone under in 3 of his last 5.

Buffalo Bills

Add Khalil Shakir, Sell James Cook, Gabe Davis

Josh Allen led the Bills on the ground, rushing for 81 yards on 9 carries, averaging an impressive 9.0 yards per attempt, and scoring 2 touchdowns. His longest run was 19 yards.

James Cook contributed significantly, carrying the ball 16 times for 43 yards. Earned 7 targets for 14% target share. Caught 6 balls for 57 yards with 2 red-zone targets.

Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson also added to the Bills’ ground game. Murray had 30 yards on 9 carries, while Johnson rushed for 19 yards on 6 attempts. Murray also had 5 targets while leading the backfield in routes run and snaps played (44%) over Cook (43%).

Don’t overlook Johnson’s contributions the last few weeks…as half of his carries came in the red zone.

Gabriel Davis emerged as Allen’s top target, making 6 receptions on 12 targets (24% target share) for 105 yards and a touchdown. Totaled 185 air yards, and came close to another TD score in OT.

Rinse and repeat folks. Sell high after the big Gabe Davis games.

Stefon Diggs also had a notable performance with 6 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown (22% target share, 11 targets).

Khalil Shakir: 5 targets for 3 catches and 47 yards. 80% snap share.

Dalton Kincaid: 6 targets for 38 yards and 5 receptions. Still solid despite a bit of a downward trend in usage. Possible the Kincaid role takes a hit when Dawson Knox returns from IR post-bye.

It’s also no coincidence that a big game from Davis was accompanied by down games from Shakir/Kincaid.

The Bills are on their Bye Week next week, then it’s the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers.

Philadelphia Eagles

Buy A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift led the Eagles’ rushing efforts with 14 carries for 80 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. His longest run was an impressive 36 yards. He only had one catch on 1 target that came on the final drive. He led the backfield with 19 routes and a strong 64% snap share.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts demonstrated his dual-threat ability, rushing 14 times for 65 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. His longest run was 16 yards.

Kenneth Gainwell (35% snap share) and Boston Scott provided solid support in the running game. Gainwell had 26 yards on 2 carries, and Scott added 14 yards on 2 carries. Gainwell added 3 targets.

DeVonta Smith was Hurts’ top target, catching 7 passes on 8 targets for 106 yards and a touchdown (29% target share). 118 air yards for a 57% air yards share. He continues to feast without Dallas Goedert in the lineup. Goedert is rumored to be ‘pushing’ to play this week. For now, I like the MORE than Smith’s 61.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks. He’s averaged over 100 receiving yards the last two weeks.

A.J. Brown also contributed with 5 receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown on a team-high of 9 targets (32% target share).

The Eagles’ receiving group showed depth with contributions from Olamide Zaccheaus, Jack Stoll, and others, each adding to the team’s passing success.

Julio Jones played the most to date, running a route on 79% of dropbacks.

Philly has SF and Dallas in their next two weeks. Shootouts as far as the eyes can see.

Baltimore Ravens

Hold/Buy Keaton Mitchell, Sell Gus Edwards, Drop Justice Hill, Buy Zay Flower, Add/Hold Isaiah Likely, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman

Keaton Mitchell led the running backs in snap percentage at 46% while also totaling 64 rushing yards on just 9 carries. He led the backfield in first-half carries (5).

The rookie also caught both of his targets for 25 yards while leading the backfield in routes run. 11 touches for 89 yards. Led the Ravens backfield in both touches and snaps, while also drawing the start in the Sunday Night Football contest. His snaps and touches continue to grow, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues after the Week 13 bye week.

Gus Edwards (27% snap percentage) carried the ball 8 times for a total of 26 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. His involvement was limited (only 2 carries in the first half) reflected by his low snap percentage (1 target). Justice Hill also out-snapped the TD-dependent Gus Bus (28%). Edwards didn’t score, and therefore was a bust in Week 12.

Hill tallied 5 carries for 31 yards (1 target), 3 of which were in the red zone.

Zay Flowers was targeted 8 times (team-high 27% target share) and made 5 catches, totaling 25 receiving yards. Played 94% of the snaps and scored twice, once as a rusher on a 37-yard rush and another as a receiver.

Rashod Bateman – 80% snap share – was involved significantly in playing time but had a relatively modest output with 21 receiving yards on 2 catches (5 targets, 17%).

Odell Beckham Jr.’s 32% snap percentage suggests he played a more limited role in this particular game. But he was highly involved when on the field, as he was targeted 5 times and made 3 catches for 34 yards. He also was the team’s leader in air yards (30%, 56 air yards).

Nelson Agholor played more snaps (42%).

Isaiah Likely played 73% of the snaps and led the team with 40 receiving yards, indicating his growing role in the offense. The second-year tight end caught 4 of his 6 targets (20% target share). All his targets came in the first half (including an additional one nullified by a penalty). Likely also finished second on the team in routes run, running a route on 83% of dropbacks.

Charlie Kolar chipped in the remaining tight end snaps, with a 27% snap share.

The Ravens are on bye in Week 13, then it’s the Rams, Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins to close out the season. No. 1 most difficult schedule for fantasy RBs…

It’s a top-end schedule for WRs, so add Ravens WRs if they get dropped over the bye week.

Los Angeles Chargers

Add Gerald Everett, Buy Austin Ekeler, Drop Quentin Johnston

Keenan Allen was Herbert’s go-to receiver, catching 14 of 16 targets for 106 yards. Allen had a significant target share of 39%.

Austin Ekeler (80% snap percentage) carried the ball 10 times for 32 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. He wasn’t able to find much room to run but was a steady presence in the backfield. Ekeler also contributed in the passing game, catching 5 of 6 targets for 32 yards (15% target share). His dual-threat ability is a key component of the Chargers’ offense. Totaled 4 red-zone touches but he did not score.

Joshua Kelley played just 20% of the snaps, with minimal touches.

Gerald Everett (64% snap percentage) caught all 4 of his targets for 43 yards and scored the team’s only receiving touchdown (2 red-zone targets). His touchdown catch highlighted his value in the red zone. Everett out-paced Donald Parham Jr. in snaps and routes run (57%).

Everett has a GREAT matchup against the Patriots in Week 13, so stream him if you need a tight end. Also gets the Broncos tight end friendly defense twice before the season ends. No. 1 schedule rest of season for tight ends.

Outside those top three players, there was little impact from the remaining Chargers pass-catchers.

Jalen Guyton saw 5 targets while playing 80% of the snaps, but he caught one pass for just 4 yards (73 air yards). Quentin Johnston continues to carve out his “bust” profile, with one catch for 7 yards on three targets. Not good. He also played fewer snaps (44%) and ran fewer routes than Alex Erickson (52%), my NFL doppelganger.

NE is the next game for the Bolts, followed by the Broncos, Raiders, Bills and Broncos (again). It’s the No. 1-most difficult schedule for WRs. Permission to sell high on Keenan Allen granted. It’s also very favorable for fantasy RBs, so we should see Ekeler rebound in the fantasy postseason.

However, given his sluggish play the last few games, I’d opt for less than 51.5 rushing yards for Ekeler in Week 13 versus the Patriots. Their defense is stout against RBs allowing the league’s second-lowest yards per carry (3.5). Ekeler has also surpassed 51.5 rushing yards just twice since returning from injury in Week 6 (29%).

Chicago Bears

Add Roschon Johnson, Sell Khalil Herbert, Buy D.J. Moore

Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert supported with 35 and 24 yards, respectively. But the rookie dominated the touches and snaps over Herbert with D’Onta Foreman inactive. Johnson played 74% of the snaps to Herbert’s 21% snap share as he ran 3x of the routes versus the veteran. Johnson out-touched Herbert 15 to 8 with 10 carries and 5 catches. Herbert had just 6 carries all night. After having 3 in the first half the team turned to a heavy dosage of Johnson in the second half, feeding him 8 carries. Johnson also fumbled. but it was recovered by the Bears in the fourth quarter. He also saw the lone RB touch (catch for 1 yard) in the red zone.

Recommended selling Herbert last week and that looks like it was the sharp move based on the Bears RB deployment on Monday night. He was the RB2 behind RJ. Although, it’s just not smart to invest too heavily in this backfield long-term with Foreman likely coming back after the bye week. After the Week 13 bye week,it’s the Lions (again), Browns, Cardinals and Falcons.

D.J. Moore emerged as a key receiver, securing 11 catches for 114 yards (13 targets, 40% target share). Continues to be a fantasy WR1 with a healthy Fields at QB.

Additional receiving contributions came from Cole Kmet (43 yards on 7 receptions on 7 targets, 21% target share) and Johnson (40 yards on 5 receptions on 5 targets, 16% target share).

Minnesota Vikings

Hold Ty Chandler, Sell Jordan Addison, Buy Alexander Mattison

The Vikings’ ground game was led by Alexander Mattison, who carried the ball 10 times for 52 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He played 56% of the snaps. Ty Chandler was limited to just 33% of the snaps. He carried the ball 4 times for 8 yards while seeing 2 targets. Mattison caught both of his targets for 12 yards. Shockingly, C.J. Ham led the backfield with 2 catches on 3 targets.

But it’s worth noting that Chandler LED the backfield in carries in the first half (3 vs. 2). The backfield was essentially the same split as the week prior, but this week Mattison had the more favorable yardage totals. Also ran the most routes.

The team’s obsession with the plodding Mattison is beyond me. But I still want to recognize the easy schedule remaining after the bye week.

The Raiders and Bengals over the next two matchups followed by the Lions and Packers.

Through the air, Josh Dobbs completed 22 out of 32 passes for 185 yards but struggled with accuracy, throwing 4 interceptions. His longest pass was 28 yards. He is also no lock to be starting QB after his meltdown post the bye week.

T.J. Hockenson was his top target, catching 5 passes for 50 yards and the only touchdown of Monday Night Football (20% target share).

Minimal receiving contributions also came from Brandon Powell (45 yards on 3 receptions on 3 targets) and Jordan Addison (39 yards on 6 receptions on a team-high 10 targets, 33% target share). 163 air yards converted into little actual production.

Addison’s targets are going to fall with Justin Jefferson returning and he’s been underwhelming in all the games he has played thus far with Dobbs. No more than 11 PPR points in four starts with Dobbs despite 6-plus targets in all contests.

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